中国の守られない約束：人民元の切り上げの宣言にもかかわらず中国共産党はそうしないインセンティブが一杯有る
【政治経済】平成床屋談義 町の噂その432
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487:09/12(月) 06:04 WtY++dFN [sage]
WSJに寄稿された中国経済の現状評論で、中国政府は人民元の切り上げとか国際化とか、2015年までにコンバーチブル
にするとか言っているけれど、中国経済の実態から見て、そういうふうになるとは思えない、と論じる。何故ならば
最近の中国経済がますます安価な労働力による輸出増大に依存した形に傾いているので、それを止めることは失業の
増大につながり、過去の例から見てそういう失業増大を容認できないだろうという。
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ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904265504576564330476117402.html
China's False Promises
Despite declarations of letting the yuan rise, the Party has every incentive not to.
By JOHN LEE SEPTEMBER 12, 2011
中国の守られない約束：人民元の切り上げの宣言にもかかわらず中国共産党はそうしないインセンティブが一杯有る
By JOHN LEE WSJ寄稿評論 12日
More broadly, the problem is that Beijing still relies on the low-skill manufacturing model for growth. Here, the
dysfunctional nature at the heart of the Chinese political economy explains the government's intransigence on the
currency issue. For Beijing to even contemplate floating the yuan, it must first rebalance the economy away from
a reliance on fixed investment and exports.
・・・
This distorted economy and polity means that heavy reliance is placed on the export manufacturing sector, which is
responsible for 150-200 million jobs. Little wonder that when the dollar was allowed to appreciate about 17% from
2005-2008, an estimated 20-40 million jobs were lost, causing Beijing to put an abrupt halt to the yuan's rise.
State-ordered stress tests of more than 1,000 export manufacturing companies in 2010 indicated that these firms
were surviving on 2% to 4% margins. In addition to the fact that Beijing is attempting to gently deflate a
property bubble by reining in bank lending for construction?the other big source of employment?leaders will not
tolerate any engineered downturn in the export manufacturing sector.
Promises of full currency liberalization are designed to deflect American and European angst about China's currency
policies ahead of the Group of 20 meeting next month. But Beijing is in no position to deliver.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
487:09/12(月) 06:04 WtY++dFN [sage]
WSJに寄稿された中国経済の現状評論で、中国政府は人民元の切り上げとか国際化とか、2015年までにコンバーチブル
にするとか言っているけれど、中国経済の実態から見て、そういうふうになるとは思えない、と論じる。何故ならば
最近の中国経済がますます安価な労働力による輸出増大に依存した形に傾いているので、それを止めることは失業の
増大につながり、過去の例から見てそういう失業増大を容認できないだろうという。
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904265504576564330476117402.html
China's False Promises
Despite declarations of letting the yuan rise, the Party has every incentive not to.
By JOHN LEE SEPTEMBER 12, 2011
中国の守られない約束：人民元の切り上げの宣言にもかかわらず中国共産党はそうしないインセンティブが一杯有る
By JOHN LEE WSJ寄稿評論 12日
More broadly, the problem is that Beijing still relies on the low-skill manufacturing model for growth. Here, the
dysfunctional nature at the heart of the Chinese political economy explains the government's intransigence on the
currency issue. For Beijing to even contemplate floating the yuan, it must first rebalance the economy away from
a reliance on fixed investment and exports.
・・・
This distorted economy and polity means that heavy reliance is placed on the export manufacturing sector, which is
responsible for 150-200 million jobs. Little wonder that when the dollar was allowed to appreciate about 17% from
2005-2008, an estimated 20-40 million jobs were lost, causing Beijing to put an abrupt halt to the yuan's rise.
State-ordered stress tests of more than 1,000 export manufacturing companies in 2010 indicated that these firms
were surviving on 2% to 4% margins. In addition to the fact that Beijing is attempting to gently deflate a
property bubble by reining in bank lending for construction?the other big source of employment?leaders will not
tolerate any engineered downturn in the export manufacturing sector.
Promises of full currency liberalization are designed to deflect American and European angst about China's currency
policies ahead of the Group of 20 meeting next month. But Beijing is in no position to deliver.